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Showers, thunderstorms possible over next few days for Cheyenne


CHEYENNE, Wyo. — Occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist over the next several days. A series of weak disturbances will impact the region. However, the potential for measurable precipitation will remain quite low.

On Saturday afternoon, a few storms may produce small hail and gusty winds due to a brief surge of Pacific moisture. The overall potential for severe storms will remain very low.

A stagnant weather pattern will likely persist over the next few days. Active northwesterly flow aloft will be on the eastern periphery of high-amplitude ridging over the western U.S. A series of mid- and upper-level disturbances should traverse the flow through Sunday, resulting in occasional chances for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Modest moisture profiles are expected to minimize the potential for measurable precipitation over much of the area. The lack of substantial moisture return and less-than-ideal boundary layer flow will likely preclude any risk for strong or severe storms. A push of Pacific moisture may help support mid- to upper-40s dew points and Convective Available Potential Energy over 500 joules per kilogram by mid- to late afternoon Saturday. CAPE is a measure of the amount of energy available for convection, indicating the potential for thunderstorm development.

This may support some small hail with the strongest storms. The best chances for precipitation should be along and east of Interstate 25 through the period, given the expected storm track. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal due to the broad upper-level trough across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A general warming trend is expected through the weekend as the ridge builds eastward.

Relatively warm and dry conditions are expected next week. Monday marks the start of a gradual warming trend throughout the week, due to an upper-level trough axis slowly pushing eastward and eventually off into the Atlantic by midweek. Further west, a strong upper-level ridge will build over much of the western U.S., with a 500-millibar high centered over the Great Basin.

As the ridge strengthens and slowly pushes east throughout the week, warmer and drier 700-millibar air — around 10,000 feet in elevation — will be ushered into the area. By Thursday, 700-millibar temperatures could be as warm as 64 degrees Fahrenheit, leading to the return of above-average temperatures for the majority of the area. Expect widespread highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s, with even warmer temperatures possible on Friday as 700-millibar temperatures exceed 68 degrees Fahrenheit.

Precipitation chances during this time will be limited with rising highs and very dry air, but they will not be zero. Weak disturbances moving throughout the ridge look possible most days next week. Although they are weak, it is possible that they could spark an isolated storm or two over or adjacent to the high terrain.